Forecasting - Why in the World do we Need a Weatherman?

Forecasting: v. calculate in advance, to contrive or plan beforehand, prearrange a statement of what is most likely to happen in the future, a planning tool.

It is important to note that forecasting is a verb, an action word. And most importantly, a planning tool.

Every one of us relies heavily on a forecast. For example, how often do you check the weather on a daily basis?  There are websites devoted to nothing but weather, cable channels dedicated to weather 24/7, and a demand for a weatherman with a personality (and sometimes appearance) so alluring and attractive that we forgive them when we don't like what they are forecasting. But why in the world do we need a weatherman?

Let's review life without forecasting.

Example #1

At a recent visit to your doctor a variety of tests were run to determine a prognosis for your aliment. His/Her office called to set up an appointment to talk about the results. Here is what the doctor tells you at that appointment: "based on the test results I recommend we schedule you for surgery. What date and time works for you?" The surgery is scheduled.

(Obviously there are unknowns. Isn't a bit of forecasting needed? Isn't it expected?)

Example #2

You have worked hard and saved every extra penny, you meet with your travel agent to book your dream vacation. Your travel agent says okay your vacation is booked here are the dates. 

(Wait, what? Where am I going?)

Example #3 

She said Yes! You tell your wedding party the outdoor wedding and reception are next weekend. 

(Alrighty then.)

Example #4

I visited that store this weekend - the one I have been struggling to find the time to visit and saw beautiful things. I was so overwhelmed; in the past I purchased things for this room and just have never been happy. But, yeah! I met this friendly designer there and we chatted about my room, we even sketched it out! The designer said they could help me with the design of the room, so I scheduled an appointment for them to come out to my home, because that was what the designer suggested.

(It's the same night as the landscape designer is coming. Look at me kicking butt with my schedule!)

These examples seem humorous and maybe a tad absurd. But why? Because in sales our expectations have become buried in our routines. To guarantee success we know listening is key. Add to that forecasting. Whatever the product we are selling, forecasting is an important step. If we are planning for a successful close there are several factors that are the predictors and one is whether the forecasts can affect the thing we are trying to forecast. 

Review the examples above again. Doesn't it ring true that the success of any of these events depend on how well things have been forecast? How well we understand the factors that contribute to it?

Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available. Forecasting is not to be shrugged off; otherwise you may as well just toss a coin. 

Don't confuse forecasting with planning and goals. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasting and plans. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals.